Last night was one of the best American Idol shows ever in my opinion, it really highlights the importance of song selection. I just wish that Lakisha could have made it to this week, cause I think we would have seen a monster set of performances, that would have blown anything that Blake could ever do completely out of the water. Oh well, I’ll have to stop mourning Lakisha’s departure at some point. Right ?
60% chance of leaving
In my opinion Blake should be leaving tonight. He is no match for Melinda’s performance skills and Jordin’s amazing voice and ability to connect with a song and make you feel it. But… Jordin’s attempt at talking back to Simon, opens the door for he potentially go home. I actually thought that Blake’s Roxanne was quite good. I think I like the song more than him though.
40% chance of leaving
For the first time in a long while, I actually disagreed with Simon. Jordin’s peformance of “I Who Have Nothing” was simply incredible in my opinion. The fact that it was older didn’t stop it from being amazing. I don’t think her first performance of that song was that great, but last night’s performace was maybe her absolute best ever. She completely sold that song, and I think we all felt something. That being said, don’t underestimate the power of talking back to Simon on voters.
I think the best strategy is to take the criticism and just act like you respect the opinion… even if you don’t. What could have been a contained situation – Simon saying that the song felt too old for her was nothing major. But her conflict with Simon will basically cause some voters to vote for Blake – like it or not.
I’m going to say that Blake has a 60% chance of leaving and Jordin has a 40% chance of leaving, solely based of her mini-conflict with Simon. Without that conflict, Blake would be completely out of luck and packing bags tonight.
If Jordin is out tonight, Melinda will win it all.
With Jordin gone, Melinda wins hands down. But if Jordin manages to stay, there is a 30% chance that she could win it all — if she can avoid conflict and finish off with strong performances.